3 Metrics That Predict If Your SaaS Will Survive

Published September 20, 2025

The problem with dashboards

Most metrics look great right before a cliff. Pretty charts, ugly futures. The fix: track a few numbers that predict survival, not just describe the past.

Metric #1: Activation Rate (did they reach the first outcome?)

Define your “aha.” Not a click. Not a login. The first real outcome.

For analytics: created a dashboard + shared a link
For docs tools: wrote a doc + added a collaborator
For automation: turned on a live workflow that ran at least once

Compute it: activated users / signups in a fixed time window (e.g., 7 days).

Green zone: > 30–40% for most self-serve tools. If you’re below 20%, fix onboarding before buying more traffic.

Metric #2: 4-Week Retention (do they come back without bribery?)

Measure the percent who are active 4 weeks after signup (same action family as activation). Cohort it by signup week.

Why 4 weeks? It catches the “looked cool, forgot about it” crowd. If you can hold users to week 4, your product probably lives in their workflow.

Green zone: 20%+ is promising for many indie SaaS. Lower? You’ve got a leaky bucket.

Metric #3: Net Revenue Retention Lite (NRR-L)

Full NRR needs lots of data. Early on, use a lightweight version:

NRR-L = (MRR from cohort after 3 months) / (MRR from that cohort in month 1)

100% means expansion offsets churn. Magic.
80–100% means you’re holding ground. Okay.
<80%? You’re sprinting to stay in place.

Sanity checks (don’t game yourself)

Same definitions every week. No sneaky re-labeling.
No discounts counted as revenue. (Sorry, not sorry.)
Leads ≠ signups. Signups ≠ activated.

What to do with the numbers

Low activation: improve the first-run path; in-product prompts; tighter promise on the landing page
Okay activation, low retention: fix the habit loop; add value moments; prune edge features
Decent retention, weak NRR-L: pricing/packaging, usage-based nudges, team features

And if you’re hunting for demand with content, remember: it’s a slow burn. Learning to rank competitive keywords will pay you back for years while you tune the product.

Final note

Three numbers. Weekly cadence. Honest eyes. Do that for 8–12 weeks and you’ll know if this thing is a business or a story. If you want templates and gentle accountability, come hang out at Indie10k.