I overbuilt my MRR calculator. Then I deleted 80% of it.
Published 2025-09-07
I set out to build an “MRR calculator” for Indie10k. Version 0 looked impressive: CAC, LTV, NRR, GRR, expansion, contraction, plan mix, annual prepay normalization, dunning recovery… you name it.
It also felt… wrong.
Not because the math was bad, but because nobody early-stage needs a cockpit of switches to answer the only questions indie founders actually care about:
How many users do I need?
How long until I hit $1k → $10k MRR (aka ramen profitability → quit-job money)?
So I scrapped it and started again.
The moment I realized I’d built the wrong thing
I asked myself (first principles style): “If I could only keep three inputs, what would they be?”
I wrote down:
Plan price ($/mo)
New users per month
Churn % (optional, because most early projects don’t even know it yet)
Everything else was either noise, investor-grade, or premature.
The core algorithm (nothing fancy)
New MRR = NewUsers × PlanPrice Churn MRR = CurrentMRR × ChurnRate MRR_next = CurrentMRR + NewMRR − ChurnMRR
Run that month over month, and you get time to $1k/$5k/$10k and users required. That’s the whole point.
What I deleted (and why)
❌ Multi-plan pricing & ARPA blending — great for boards, overkill for day 0.
❌ CAC/LTV/NRR/ARR tiles — useful later; they obscured the one thing people want now.
❌ Cohorts & seasonality — I was cosplaying a data team, not serving indies.
❌ CSV import & dunning — fun, but yak-shave territory for an MVP.
What stayed:
✅ Three sliders + one goal
✅ Milestone timeline ($100 → $1k → $10k)
✅ A clean growth curve with milestone markers
✅ One-click “turn this into a mission” for Indie10k users (numbers → action)
Example that made it “click”
Plan: $19/mo
New users: 10/mo
Churn: 3%/mo
The tool says: $1k in ~7 months, $10k in ~28 months.
Not perfect. But directionally true and instantly motivating.
Why this is better (for indies)
Clarity > completeness. You don’t need 20 dials to start.
Momentum > metrics. Seeing a date on the horizon changes how you work this week.
Action > analysis. The projection turns into a concrete Indie10k mission, not just a screenshot.
Ship link
If you want to try it (or tell me what’s missing), it’s live:
👉 Profitability Path Tool https://indie10k.com/tools/profitability-path?utm_source=indiehackers&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=profitability_path_launch
I’ll be in the comments answering Qs and collecting blunt feedback. If this helps you see your path to $1k, I’d love to hear it.