Chapter 8: The Honest Mirror — Measure

You shipped. You asked. Now you face what happened. Measure doesn’t care how many nights you coded or how clever the architecture is. It only cares about reality when people touched your work.

Why Measure Matters

Without measuring, you’re guessing. Guessing killed my first sixty‑five projects. Measuring gives you truth: did anyone click, sign up, return, or bounce? Truth stings sometimes. It also points your feet in the right direction.

Indie10k Loops

Loop one: almost nobody stuck. It was heavy and complex. Loop two: better, but still bulky—drop‑off after sign‑up. Loop three: lean enough at last; people completed their first loops. Without measuring, I would have kept polishing that bloated V1. Data forced cuts I wouldn’t have made on instinct.

Measure Without Overcomplicating

Pick one metric per loop. “Number of people who clicked download” is enough. Timebox observation to a week so you don’t chase daily noise. Ignore vanity: pageviews feel nice; completed actions matter. Keep your metric visible—write it where you see it so you don’t drift. Match metric type to step: leading indicators for early loops (clicks), lagging for monetization (payments).

Pitfalls to Avoid

Metric soup lets you rationalize anything. Choose one. Cherry‑picking hides the learning in the ugly bits. Over‑measuring turns a loop into a board meeting. Keep it simple and honest. When numbers are small, look for direction and stories, not statistical certainty.

Micro‑Exercise

Look at what you shipped and ask: “What’s the single most important thing I want to see happen this week?” Write it down. At week’s end, check it. No excuses. No filters. Just the truth.

Measure acts as a compass. Next, you’ll share what you found.

Set a Baseline First

Write the starting number before you ship so you don’t retro‑fit memory. Even “zero sign‑ups” is useful—it makes the first one count.

Reading Small Numbers

In early loops, you won’t have statistical power. Use direction, not precision. Did replies go from zero to three? Did time‑to‑value drop from minutes to seconds? Pair the number with a quote to keep context.

Pivot, Persist, or Pare Back

If the metric moves in the right direction, persist with another loop. If it stays flat and feedback points to a different problem, pivot the aim (switch tracks). If effort balloons, pare back scope until you can see movement again. The measure tells you which lever to pull.