Flip a Coin (But Smarter)

Indecision drains your energy and steals your time. The longer you hesitate, the more momentum slips through your fingers, leaving you stuck in a loop of doubt and delay.

The Cost of Indecision

Indecision kills momentum as surely as overwork. You stare at two slices and argue with yourself. You poll your friends and feel more confused. You research until the day ends.

A Simple Decision Model

A simple decision model breaks the loop: pick the next move by expected value per unit of time, with tie-breakers that bias you toward momentum.

Score each option quickly by estimating:

• Impact: How much the slice might move your current lever if it works.
• Probability: Your honest guess that it will work now, not someday.
• Learning: How much information the slice will generate even if it fails.

Multiply these three, then divide by time. The higher score wins. You are not searching for truth. You are searching for a good enough bet you can place today.

More complex prioritization frameworks exist, but this model keeps you moving.

An Example in Action

You can spend forty minutes adding a refund FAQ to the pricing page, or you can DM three users asking them to try the first run. Consider:

• Refund FAQ:

  • Medium impact if your theme is revenue
  • High probability if you already heard confusion
  • Medium learning
  • Fits in one box

• DMs:

  • High impact on discovery
  • High probability of getting replies
  • High learning
  • Also fits in one box

Which aligns with your theme? Which yields faster feedback? The model pushes you toward the DMs if this is a discovery week; toward the FAQ if it is a revenue week.

Tie-Breakers for Momentum

Tie-breakers keep you honest when scores feel fuzzy. Choose:

• Shorter over longer
• Reversible over risky
• User-touching over internal

If two slices still tie, flip a coin and start. Movement reveals truth faster than more thinking.

Time Matters

Time is part of the math for a reason. A medium-impact slice you can ship in twenty minutes often beats a high-impact slice that takes three days and breaks your streak. You can do the high-impact slice next after you gain momentum and new information.

Write It Down

Write your choice and your reasoning in one line in your note. For example:

• “Picked refund FAQ over onboarding DM because theme = revenue; time = 30m; expected value higher per hour.”

This line guards you against second-guessing and gives you a breadcrumb when you review the week.

Don’t Over-Optimize

You will be wrong often and still progress because you are moving and learning. If you find yourself re-scoring the same options, set a five-minute timer, pick, and go. The cost of delay is higher than the cost of a sub-optimal slice.

Team Use

Teams can use the model to align quickly. Each person scores options for impact, probability, learning, and time, and writes a one-line rationale. You pick the highest per-time score that aligns with the theme. If someone feels strongly, they volunteer for the slice and commit to a box. The process stays light and produces action, not consensus theater.

Decide and Move

Good enough beats perfect. Decide, move, and let the next ship teach you whether your model needs a tweak. This momentum will carry you forward—building the foundation to sustain and compound your progress in the chapters ahead.